Vice Presidential Fever In Virginia

We've all got it. RK now has two different posts devoted to the subject, here and here. Ben is in despair with this. I've done my fair share of speculation. And Bearing Drift weighs in with this and this.

One way or another, lots of Virginia bloggers on both sides of the aisle think Obama is going to pick Kaine because of the convergence of two facts. First, the Obama campaign has stated that the announcement will be no later than Friday but could come as early as tomorrow. Then, Obama is scheduled to be in Virginia tomorrow and Thursday. Also, Joe Biden today said that he's not the man. Hopefully, we'll know by tomorrow. But I think Lowell summed it up best (emphasis is mine):

UPDATE: According to Marc Ambinder at The Atlantic, Tim Kaine will speak on Thursday night of the convention. Given that the running mate speaks Wednesday night, is this a sign that it's NOT Tim Kaine? My god, I'm so confused! (:

Yes, so are we all.

Obama Could Pick VP As Early As Weds. He's In Virginia Weds.

According to the New York Times, we all could know who Obama's vice presidential pick will be as early as Wednesday. Here's what they reported:

WASHINGTON — Senator Barack Obama has all but settled on his choice for a running mate and set an elaborate rollout plan for his decision, beginning with an early morning alert to supporters, perhaps as soon as Wednesday morning, aides said.

Mr. Obama’s deliberations remain remarkably closely held. Aides said perhaps a half-dozen advisers were involved in the final discussions in an effort to enforce a command that Mr. Obama issued to staff members: that his decision not leak out until supporters are notified.

Mr. Obama had not notified his choice — or any of those not selected — of his decision as of late Monday, advisers said. Going into the final days, Mr. Obama was said to be focused mainly on three candidates: Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana, Gov. Tim Kaine of Virginia and Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware.

So, it appears that Tim Kaine is still in the running. And if the timing is any indication of things to come, here's what Obama's schedule will be for the next few days, again, according to the NYT.

Mr. Obama’s schedule calls for him to awaken on Tuesday in Orlando, Fla., and by the end of the day be in Raleigh, N.C. By Wednesday, he is scheduled to be in Virginia. The Obama campaign has cautioned against reading anything into his schedule, saying it could be changed in an instant to accommodate the plan to introduce the running mate.

Aides said the announcement would come at the earliest on Wednesday morning.

So, the earliest the announcement could come is Wednesday. Obama has been opening headquarters all over Virginia and has a great field operation. Virginia is definitely in play. And Obama will be here on Wednesday. Hmmm...

What do you think?

No, It Won't Be Tim Kaine!

I’m going to go out on a limb and predict Tim Kaine is not going to be Obama’s VP pick. A bucketful of pixels and a bunch of angst have been spilled on the progressive blogosphere about this possibility. But who’s the one who has been touting Kaine as the most likely pick, based his meeting this week in DC with Obama? Tim Kaine himself.

But as The Fix points out today, the list of candidates for vice president is longer than the press previously believed. That means that either Kaine has been deliberately putting out the stories about how seriously he’s in contention as a diversionary tactic or his loose lips have killed his chances (bolding in quote is mine).

The hard vetting involves follow-ups to lingering questions about candidates' backgrounds and clarifications of their stands on issues. While the process is intensifying, the fact that the number of potential candidates still being considered is larger than generally believed, suggests that no decision is imminent, just 26 days before the opening of the Democratic National Convention.

It also runs counter to much-publicized comments by Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine Tuesday that "there has been a long list. It seems to be getting shorter."

Tim Kaine is known to be a friend who enjoys a close relationship with Obama. He’s also one of Obama’s earliest supporters. So, is he happily taking on the role of red herring and playing along with Team Obama’s diversionary tactics to distract the media in its speculations? Or did Kaine’s premature talk kill his chances?

With the exception of Kaine, who seems to be on something of a media blitz of late, all of the candidates above -- and their key political people -- are saying almost nothing about where they stand in the process. The idea guiding that approach is that the more publicly a candidate declares his (or her) interest in the job, the less chance there is that person will be the pick.

Obama has been known for running a disciplined campaign that stays on message. So, all the discussion about Kaine may actually be misdirection. As much as Obama wants to win Virginia, I suspect Kaine and Obama also are mindful of the problems that would be created if Kaine were to desert the Governor’s mansion and leave it to Bolling.

My speculation is that Kaine gets a midterm cabinet post instead. The only real question is whether that's been the plan all along.

Reflections on Kaine's Endorsement and the Opportunity He Blew

It appears that Gov. Tim Kaine just lit a match, threw it on a pile of kindling and ignited a fire on the blogosphere. In other words, he endorsed Gerry Connolly in the 11th CD primary. According to today's Washington Post, he said:

"Gerry brings passion and integrity to public service and a deep sense of commitment to all he undertakes," Kaine said in the statement. "I believe that this race has attracted four worthy and capable candidates, but for me, Gerry Connolly is the standout. He will serve the 11th Congressional District with honor and distinction. I fully endorse and will actively work for his election, and I encourage voters in the 11th Congressional District to do the same."

I'm not sure I agree with the "integrity" part, unless the good governor has a different definition of that word than I do.

But, as the blogosphere's favorite Northern Virginia reporter, Amy Gardner, points out:

In a statement released yesterday, Kaine said that Connolly, who is chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, is the strongest candidate among the four competing in the June 10 primary. Kaine said Connolly has been a "partner" on a range of issues, including strengthening the economy, toughening environmental standards, fully funding schools and fighting for a Metrorail extension to Dulles International Airport.

"As a former elected local official, I appreciate Gerry's practical approach to problem-solving," said Kaine, a former mayor of Richmond.

What appears strikingly apparent to me is that much of this mirrors the Jim Webb-Harris Miller primary in 2006. The state legislators and the firefighters' union lined up with Miller while the progressive blogosphere and activists went with Webb. This is a continuation of the rivalry between the moderate pro-business Chamber of Commerce picked candidate and the more liberal elements, including the majority of unions, who are once again lining up with the more progressive candidate.

Meanwhile, Ben and Lowell are definitely infuriated. Indeed over at Raising Kaine, the logo has been removed from that blog. I don't blame them one bit for the sense of betrayal they all feel over there.

Kaine began splitting off in a direction that has roused the ire of environmentalists for quite some time. He supported the elevated Metrorail track through Tysons Corner rather than the underground Tysons tunnel, which disappointed the RK crowd, along with a lot of others who understand that the tunnel provides the best option to turn the crowded Dulles corridor into an environmentally sustainable, mixed use business-residential center. The tunnel would encourage development of a walkable "downtown" area.

Not only is that a better environmental and business option for the area, but many health professionals believe that our increasing suburban sprawl, with spread out highways and parking lots and no walkable downtown centers, is a leading cause of the obesity epidemic in this country.

In addition, Gov. Kaine has shown an appalling lack of concern for the health of Virginia residents by his continued support of coal. I am very sympathetic to the union support he gets for this because, for labor, it's a matter of protecting jobs. Indeed, I've played Devil's advocate over at RK, in the past, on this issue, trying to present labor's point of view.

The truth, though, is that protecting the fading jobs of a dying industry rather than investing in the careers of the future, including green technolgy, is a foolish choice. That's especially true when that dying industry has been quite literally responsible for the deaths of so many of its own employees through diseases like black lung.

Here, I have to admit, is one of the few times that I break with organized labor, which remains committed to protecting those jobs. Again, I sympathize with them but think it's only a costly delay of the inevitable, which is green energy and technology. The governor and labor would do better if they instead supported investing in the infrastructure for green technology and job retraining for displaced coal miners. That would create a healthier state environment and safer jobs in the long run.

The governor also would have done well to stay out of the 11th CD race. Then, whoever won, he could have been a healing and uniting force. I generally don't fault those who support a different candidate than me and I'm not about to end friendships with people I respect, like Kris Amundsen, the Bulovas, and the Marsdens over it. But the governor is not just wrong but by jumping in where he didn't need to be, he blew a valuable opportunity to be the party's uniter in November.

Sometimes, Governor Kaine, it's good to be a statesman rather than a politician.