I attended tonight's Fairfax County Democratic Committee Jefferson Jackson Dinner, where they held a straw poll. Now keep in mind that the 2007 straw poll predicted Gerry Connolly's primary victory down to accurate percentages of his ultimate electoral victory. In 2007, he won the FCDC JJ straw poll by 57 percent to 34 percent for Leslie Byrne. In the primary election, Connolly won by 58 percent of the vote, with a low voter turnout of 3 percent. This year, while it's impossible to predict the turnout, most knowledgeable observers expect it to be low too.
Here are the results for the Governor's and Lt Governor's races:
Brian Moran: 166 (40.9%)
Creigh Deeds: 123 (30.3%)
Terry McAuliffe: 117 (28.8)
Jody Wagner: 260 (65.7%)
Mike Signer: 136 (34.3%)
Now, bear in mind that this is just the results of a bunch of activists who attended the JJ. Both Creigh Deeds and Terry McAuliffe have had their successes in straw polls as well. McAuliffe won Gerry Connolly's St. Patrick's Day straw poll, which also has a good track record for being predictive of primary results. So take it for what it's worth and with a grain of salt.
But I certainly wouldn't count Brian Moran out for carrying Fairfax County, one of Virginia's most voter rich area. But with only 40 percent in what is supposed to be his strongest section of the state, indeed his home turf, will this be enough to win a primary and then carry him through to the general election?
There are obviously unanswered questions here and this race is still very much up for grabs.