I attended tonight's Fairfax County Democratic Committee Jefferson Jackson Dinner, where they held a straw poll. Now keep in mind that the 2007 straw poll predicted Gerry Connolly's primary victory down to accurate percentages of his ultimate electoral victory. In 2007, he won the FCDC JJ straw poll by 57 percent to 34 percent for Leslie Byrne. In the primary election, Connolly won by 58 percent of the vote, with a low voter turnout of 3 percent. This year, while it's impossible to predict the turnout, most knowledgeable observers expect it to be low too.
Here are the results for the Governor's and Lt Governor's races:
Governor
Brian Moran: 166 (40.9%)
Creigh Deeds: 123 (30.3%)
Terry McAuliffe: 117 (28.8)
Lieutenant Governor
Jody Wagner: 260 (65.7%)
Mike Signer: 136 (34.3%)
Now, bear in mind that this is just the results of a bunch of activists who attended the JJ. Both Creigh Deeds and Terry McAuliffe have had their successes in straw polls as well. McAuliffe won Gerry Connolly's St. Patrick's Day straw poll, which also has a good track record for being predictive of primary results. So take it for what it's worth and with a grain of salt.
But I certainly wouldn't count Brian Moran out for carrying Fairfax County, one of Virginia's most voter rich area. But with only 40 percent in what is supposed to be his strongest section of the state, indeed his home turf, will this be enough to win a primary and then carry him through to the general election?
There are obviously unanswered questions here and this race is still very much up for grabs.
3 comments:
I think the most interesting point here is that Terry McAuliffe came in third. What do you make of that result?
I find that interesting too. I am not sure what to make of it since this was supposed to be Terry's strongest region as well. And he supposedly bought nine tables, from what I've heard. He had a loud cheering section. But after their speeches, the night was Brian's. This was his home base.
The conventional wisdom has long been that Brian and Terry would duke it out up here, allowing Creigh to slip in by running strong in his base of strength, the so-called RoVA area.
For more conventional wisdom, either Terry or Brian have to win big here and in Richmond and Hampton Roads and then hold down Creigh's margins in the rural areas. Or, in reverse, Creigh has to hold down both Terry's and Brian's margins of victory in NoVA and Richmond and Hampton Roads/Virginia Beach, and turn out his voters in his home area.
I honestly think this one is just too unpredictable to call.
I am not sure whether the straw poll in this case works like it did with Gerry Connoly since the primary election is a state-wide election and not a district one. I for one do not like Terry since he will torn apart in the general...something that Creigh can partially avoid.
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